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Dave Burton's comment
#1
From HERE


I agree. The 1997-1998 El Niño and the the subsequent 1999-2000 La Niña were paired. If you start your graph either shortly before them or shortly after them you’ll see The Pause (until the 2015-2016 El Niño). But if you start your graph between the 1997-98 El Nino and the 1999-2000 La Nina, like the climate alarmists prefer, then you’ll low-bias the left endpoint, and create the illusion of a subsequently rising temperature trend.

A 2014 analysis by MIT’s Ben Santer et al found that, when the effects of ENSO cycles and volcanic aerosols are accounted for, there’d been no significant global warming since about 1993. Here’s a graph from their paper, which shows that:

[Image: Santer_2014-02_fig2_graphC_1_100pct.png]

Here’s the paper:

Volcanic contribution to decadal changes in tropospheric temperature


They sought to subtract out the effects of ENSO (El Niño / La Niña) and the big Pinatubo (1991) & El Chichón (1982) volcanic eruptions, from measured (satellite) temperature data, to find the underlying temperature trends. In the graph, the black line is averaged CMIP5 models, the blue & red are measured temperatures.

Two things stand out:

1. The models run hot. The CMIP5 models (the black line) show a lot more warming than the satellites. The models show about 0.65°C warming over the 35-year period, and the satellites show only about half that. And,

2. The “pause” in global warming began around 1993. The measured warming is all in the first 14 years (1979-1993). Their graph (with corrections to compensate for both ENSO and volcanic forcings) shows no noticeable warming since then.

Note, too, that although the Santer graph still shows an average of almost 0.1°C/decade of warming, that’s partially because it starts in 1979. The late 1970s were the frigid end of an extended cooling period in the northern hemisphere. Here’s a graph of U.S. temperatures, from a 1999 Hansen/NASA paper:

[Image: fig1x_1999_highres_fig6_from_paper4_27pc...ircled.png]

The fact that when volcanic aerosols & ENSO are accounted for the models run hot by about a factor of two is evidence that the IPCC’s estimates of climate sensitivity are high by about a factor of two, and it suggests that a substantial part, perhaps half, of the global warming since the mid-1800s was natural, rather than anthropogenic.
It is our attitude toward free thought and free expression that will determine our fate. There must be no limit on the range of temperate discussion, no limits on thought. No subject must be taboo. No censor must preside at our assemblies.

–William O. Douglas, U.S. Supreme Court Justice, 1952
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