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Bill Ellis comment
#1
From HERE

Let’s remember there were two large volcanoes in the beginning of the UAH record that makes the trend appear larger. Start low with two volcanoes and end high with the biggest super El Nino in 100 years and yeah, you have an upward trend.
If you adjust those out (and then the ENSO impact, and the AMO impact and the small Solar impact) and then see what warming you have left …).

It is only 0.038C per decade.

I’ve been running this natural variation model for almost 8 years now having first posted the idea on WUWT in 2008.

http://web.archive.org/web/2009062617470...d-the-amo/

Well, it is still working well and here is a model of the monthly average of UAH, RSS and HadAT back to 1958 (and this monthly, none of that phony smoothing over 5 years or something).


[Image: UAH_RSS_Had_At_Model_Aug16.png]

The warming residual is only 0.038C per decade and one can see there is no pesky ENSO bumps and volcano dips and just a small steady rise (with a white noise error of about 0.2C which the climate seems to exhibit on a monthly basis),

[Image: UAH_RSS_Had_At_Warming_Aug16.png]

Now when we extend those trends back to 1850 and go out to 2100, we see there is maybe another 0.4C of warming to come by 2100 (the error margin on your thermometer). In 85 years, you wouldn’t even be able to see this much change on your thermometer, electronic or the old mercury ones.)

[Image: UAH_RSS_Had_At_Warming_2100_Aug16.png]
It is our attitude toward free thought and free expression that will determine our fate. There must be no limit on the range of temperate discussion, no limits on thought. No subject must be taboo. No censor must preside at our assemblies.

–William O. Douglas, U.S. Supreme Court Justice, 1952
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