08-22-2016, 07:38 AM
August 21, 2016 at 5:33 pm
I love Bill McKibben! He epitomizes the missing link (they say we haven’t found it yet, I say you are looking in the wrong places). Ignorance truly is bliss. What Billy Boy doesn’t know may also be what many of youu also do not know, and that is that the ends of all post-MPT interglacials is considered the “Climatic Madhouse”. It is entirely possible that at 11,719 years old, the Holocene is entering its death throes. There were a minimum of two major positive thermal excursions at the end of the last interglacial, the last one was the strongest and it saw the glacial inception. Same thing happened at the end of MIS-11:
“The Marine Isotope Stage 11 interglacial, centered at ~400 ka, appears to be the best candidate for understanding climatic changes in the context of low insolation forcing such as that of our present interglacial. Direct correlation between terrestrial (pollen) and marine climatic indicators and ice volume proxy from deep-sea core MD01-2447 (off northwestern Iberia) shows for the first time the phase relationship between southwestern European vegetation, sea surface temperatures in the northeastern Atlantic midlatitudes and ice volume during MIS 11. A warmest 32,000 years-long period and three following warm/cold cycles occurred synchronously on land and ocean. The end of the warmest period sees the glacial inception which coincides with the replacement of warm deciduous forest by conifer (pine-fir) expansion in northwestern Iberia and, consequently, with the southward migration of the tree line in high latitudes in response to declining summer insolation.”
Same thing happened at the end of MIS-19:
“During the glacial inception from MIS 19 to MIS 18, the low resolution EPICA Dome C water stable isotope record (Jouzel et al., 2007) has revealed millennial variability principally marked by the occurrence of three consecutive warm events.”
So I am sorry to Billy Boy, and all the mewling quim out there. You have a much more difficult problem to solve than you can possibly imagine! As time, and the Holocene, plow on, I become less and less resistant to your mewlings. Go right ahead, strip the climate security blanket from the late Holocene atmosphere. Tip us into the next glacial. Your gene pool stands a far lower chance of making it to even the first Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillation, much less to the next interglacial (some 90kyrs away). In other words I am leaning more towards “I suggest a new strategy R2, let the Wookie(s) win!”
“Here, we study the questions why we still live in an interglacial world and when we should expect the end of the Holocene under natural conditions (no anthropogenic influence) or under anthropogenic perturbations (also referred to as “Anthropocene”), questions which attracted considerable interest in recent years. It was argued that without earlier anthropogenic activity we would live already in glacial world (Ruddiman’s hypothesis). Tzedakis et al. (Nature Geoscience, 2012), using MIS 19 as the best analogy in terms of the orbital parameters for the Holocene, suggested that the new glacial inception would start within the next 1500 years, assuming natural CO2 level of 240 ppm. However, 240 ppm is much lower than preindustrial CO2 level and CO2 concentrations during several most recent interglacials (starting from MIS 11). Here, using the comprehensive Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2, carefully calibrated for the simulations of the past eight glacial cycles, we show that (i) although climate conditions during late Holocene were very close to the bifurcation transition to the glacial climate state (Calov and Ganopolski, Geophys. Res. Lett., 2005), it is very unlikely that under pre-industrial CO2 level (280 ppm) glacial inception would occur within the next several thousand years; (ii) it is likely that the current interglacial, even without anthropogenic CO2 emission, would be the longest interglacial during the past million years; (iii) current CO2 level makes new glacial inception virtually impossible within the next 50,000 years; (iv) in agreement with earlier result of Archer and Ganopolski (Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., 2007) based on a conceptual model of glacial cycles, we found that consumption of a large portion of available fossil fuel could postpone the next glacial inception by hundreds of thousand years.”
I could provide a slew of quotations/references, but we are limited to 3 before automatic moderation sets in.
But the salient point here should be rather simple and obvious. Only 1 post-MPT interglacial has lasted longer than about half a precession cycle, which varies between 19,000 and 23,000 years and we are at the 23kyr point now, making 11,500 half. At 11,719 years old, the Holocene is now looking a bit long in the tooth. As far as I can tell from vast research the only thing we could possibly do to extend it would be to release large quantities of GHGs into the late Holocene atmosphere. Gobs of research confirms this hypothesis, but with the proviso that the warmists are actually right about the insulating properties of CO2/CH4/etc.
But the hard point is precisely this. Who wants to extend the Holocene/Anthropocene such that we are stuck with ever growing numbers of mewling McKibben-style quim? Isn’t it interesting that by coming at the problem from a completely opposite viewpoint one can come to the exact same conclusion?
So I laugh at you Billy Boy. You have no idea if this last grand solar maximum was the Holocene’s last hurrah, or its first of several. And we have no idea what caused those…… What we do know is that if you happen to be absolutely correct about GHGs, then you could not possibly be more wrong about what to do about them. You call this the Anthropocene. OK, I’ll bite. Technically would that not mean that we are actually living in the anthropogenic extension of Holocene interglacial warmth? And you want to end it? Right? You realize that there is only one other climate state left, the cold glacial state.
Did you bump your head?
Full Disclosure: I am doing my bit, I drive a 6-month old SRT Challenger with the 392 Hemi. I’ll be long gone before you man-up to try and take it away Billy Boy. That is assuming you ever do manage to graduate puberty.
It is our attitude toward free thought and free expression that will determine our fate. There must be no limit on the range of temperate discussion, no limits on thought. No subject must be taboo. No censor must preside at our assemblies.
–William O. Douglas, U.S. Supreme Court Justice, 1952
–William O. Douglas, U.S. Supreme Court Justice, 1952