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Bill Illis's comment

Quote:Bill Illis
August 24, 2015 at 5:09 am

The lags tell you a great deal about what is really going on in the energy system contained in the Earth’s molecules.

The Ocean surface lags behind the solar forcing by about 82 days. In the northern hemisphere, solar energy peaks on June 21 but most of the northern hemisphere ocean surface temperature peaks on September 12.

The Land surface lags behind the annual solar cycle by about 32 days. The lowest solar forcing is December 21, but the lowest Land temperature is January 22.

At 45N, the average mean temperature varies from 20C on July 22 to -10C on January 22. This is equivalent to the land gaining/losing about 0.8 W/m2 per day or about 0.00001 joules/m2/second over the annual cycle.

In the daily cycle. the land air temperature lags behind the Sun by about 3.5 hours. Solar peak at noon, air temperature peak at 3:30 pm.

If one thinks about how much solar energy is coming in at noon on June 21, 960 W/m2 or 960 joules/m2/second (including the average cloudiness), but the actual air temperature is only increasing by about 0.008 joules/m2/second at noon. Almost all of the solar energy, 99.9992% of it, is not going into heating the air, it is immediately being re-emitted back to space and/or is being absorbed into the soil and rock molecules in the surface just as fast as it coming in.

At night time, when there is no solar energy coming in at all, but the air temperature only cools off as if 0.006 joules/m2/second is being emitted out to space. 959.992 joules emitted/lost at noon but only 000.006 joules emitted/lost at night.

On a per second basis, there is a lot going on in the real physical world that is not being captured in climate science. Energy accumulates on a per second basis by extremely minute amounts. The solar cycle only varies by +/- 0.4 W/m2. That is already an extremely small amount so take a extremely small amount and accumulate energy from that variation at even more extreme minute amounts. Over many decades, it could make a difference, but not for a single solar cycle or just a few. It would take 30 or 40 years.
It is our attitude toward free thought and free expression that will determine our fate. There must be no limit on the range of temperate discussion, no limits on thought. No subject must be taboo. No censor must preside at our assemblies.

–William O. Douglas, U.S. Supreme Court Justice, 1952

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